ASA CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH! 64% Long Term!
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston St
- Release Date
- 10/12/2026 05:15 PM
- Event Date
- 10/14/2026 08:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Sam Houston St +1.5 (-118)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #108 ASA PLAY ON Sam Houston State +1.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 8 PM ET
Wrong team favored here in our opinion and according to our power ratings (WKU opened -1.5). We wouldn’t be surprised if the number flips to Sam Houston favored in this one. SHSU has played the tougher schedule (76th per Sagarin and WKU is 101st) yet the Bearkats have the much better YPP margin at -0.1 compared to -1.4 for the Hilltoppers. Tough scheduling spot for Western KY as well as they will be playing for their 7th straight week and this is already their 5th road game. The states they’ve already traveled to including Nevada, Georgia, Indiana, New Mexico, and now Texas. Meanwhile, Sam Houston is coming off a loss @ red hot Liberty but they had a week off prior to that so they should be well rested for this one at home. The Hilltoppers are coming off a home win over Missouri State but they are 0-4 SU on the road this season losing all of their games by at least 21 points. Their closest road opponent this year to Sam Houston State was New Mexico State. We have those 2 teams power rated almost dead even (as do other power ratings we follow) and NMSU rolled over the Hilltoppers by 21 points and outgained them by 1.1 YPP. SHSU outgained their first 3 opponents on a YPP basis but they have been outgained in each of the last 2 games @ Texas Tech and @ Liberty. Now they are back at home and take a huge step down in competition facing Western KY. Both teams rely heavily on their passing game and the Bearkats are better on both sides of the all in that regard. They are 89th in passing success rate compared to WKU who sits at 124th. Defensively SHSU is 16th in passing success rate while WKU is 42nd. When it comes to big plays in the passing game, Sam Houston ranks 52nd in pass explosiveness facing a Hilltopper stop unit that is 126th in explosive pass defense. SHSU’s defense is 23rd in the country in explosive pass defense. We like Sam Houston State to get this win at home on Wednesday night.