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Kris Bubic has been superb for the Royals three starts into his 2026 season with a 2.50 ERA and an 11.5 K/9. The Royals are a disappointing 7-11 so far this season however including losing the first two games of this series in matching 2-1 results. The Tigers are undefeated vs. left-handed starters this season after going 26-17 vs. left-handers last season but Detroit is batting .194 with 2.1 runs per nine vs. southpaws this season. The recent splits are even worse with Detroit scoreless with a .080 team average in the past five games vs. lefties. In that span Kansas City is batting .173 with 1.7 runs per nine vs. right-handers as both offenses are struggling. Keider Montero has a 1.74 ERA in two starts for the Tgiers this season with some momentum in his third MLB season following his contributions to the WBC championship for Venezuela. Montero has 10 strikeouts and only two walks allowed this season and he had a scoreless outing vs. the Royals last season. The Royals had a tough start to the season from its bullpen but the recent splits have been excellent with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in the past 10 games. Detroit has some of the best relief pitching results in MLB so far this season. There have only been six runs and 21 combined hits the past two days in this series and there is no reason to expect a major change of course in Thursday’s game with some rain possibly delaying the final game of this series in cool early season conditions. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck. Nelly’s is 31-16 in April MLB picks going back to 2024 – get on board for day games Thursday or join for an extended subscription. We’re also on a 6-2 run in NBA Play-In Tournament picks!

#961 TEXAS with Leiter (-) over the Athletics with Lopez at 3:05 PM EST After suffering two consecutive one-run defeats to the Athletics and facing the possibility of losing the series, the Rangers are poised to secure a convincing win before heading to Seattle for their Friday night matchup against the Mariners. The Athletics, who have been outperforming expectations, recently claimed two victories in a row and seven wins in their past eight games, but they will encounter significant difficulty in this daytime contest. Young right-hander Jack Leiter will start for Texas. Across three outings this season against the Dodgers, Reds, and Orioles, he allowed eight earned runs and 14 hits over 14.2 innings. Leiter recorded 21 strikeouts and issued six walks, resulting in a 1-1 record with a 4.91 ERA. Over the last three seasons, Leiter has participated in 41 games (38 as a starter), surrendering 108 earned runs and 185 hits in 202.0 innings. These numbers translate to an 11-14 record and a 4.81 ERA. Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher for the Athletics, takes the mound for the home team. In his three starts against the Mets, Astros, and Braves, he gave up 11 earned runs and 16 hits in only 13.1 innings. Lopez struck out 11 and walked 13, indicating control challenges, and finished with a 1-1 record and a high 7.43 ERA. Over four years and 32 appearances (22 as a starter), Lopez has permitted 65 earned runs and 116 hits through 128.2 innings, which amounts to a 9-8 record and a 4.55 ERA. Several statistics support this pick. Following a win, the Athletics have lost 89 of their last 154 games; when playing without rest, they've dropped 166 of their last 291; and in non-divisional matchups, they've come up short 127 times out of 232 games. Conversely, Texas has won 103 of its last 177 games as favorites. With a chance to claim a share of first place in the AL West, the Rangers will rise to the occasion. Take Texas with Leiter. Thanks, and best of luck, Tom.

MLB Jim's Free Play: 968. Astros -1.5 Runs Houston excels in categories we like such as pitching, lineup depth and late-game stability. They should be favored to cover this 1.5 run spread versus Colorado. The Rockies offense often fades away on the road and especially away from Coors Field. Colorado simply doesn’t have the firepower to launch home runs or produce extended rallies in pitcher friendly environments. Houston has the pitching matchup advantage and the Astros lineup has more depth and discipline to take advantage early against Colorado’s shaky rotation. When this game shifts to the bullpens Houston has even more of an advantage. Houston’s bullpen is much deeper and capable of locking down leads. Colorado’s relief corps has been one of the worst in baseball. Houston has the starting pitching, lineup production, bullpen depth and home field advantage to separate.

(#968) Houston Astros | ML | . Juan Mejia (0-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Ryan Weiss (0-2, 7.36 ERA). This is not a very good pitching matchup on Thursday by the numbers, whatsoever. However, I think this is a good time to ride the hot hand. The Astros have been perfect in the series so far, winning both games. Both of these starters are relief pitchers, meaning that we'll see a bullpen game from both. That being said, the team with the better relievers will have the upper hand, and I believe that it's Houston. No, this probably won't be the most watched game on Thursday. But, it's definitely one to consider. Astros complete the sweep. Burns' Prediction: 6-3 Astros.

My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Padres rallying for a stunning come-from-behind victory in walk-off fashion. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Thursday as Seattle sends Luis Castillo to the hill against Walker Buehler of San Diego. Castillo will be looking to rebound after getting roughed up by the Astros last time out. Through three starts spanning 13 innings this season he has logged a 3.16 FIP. I like his chances of rebounding with a quality outing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Buehler looked like he was finished as a viable big league starter a couple of years ago, largely due to injuries. He's rebounded nicely since joining the Phillies late last season and now the Padres. So far this year, Buehler owns a 3.87 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through three starts. Despite the Mariners ninth inning meltdown last night, I do trust both of these bullpens. Seattle's 'pen still owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the season while Padres relievers have logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (8*).

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take LAFC/San Jose UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19) This is a major Western Conference clash between two title contenders and these have been the best two defensive sides in MLS this season (along with Seattle). They have allowed a combined four goals through 14 combined matches! Not only is this a big match for Western Conference status, but this is a great test for the Earthquake to show how solid they really are this season. Two seasons ago this was one of the worst sides in MLS but they rebuilt quickly and have a great squad this season. LAFC probably has the best chance to represent the west in the MLS Cup, so San Jose will want to play well here and we think they lean into their defense. These sides are behind the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference standings, and that team has an easy matchup Friday, so both sides here will want to keep pace. These matchups have generally been high scoring, but the Earthquake are a more focused defensive side this season and we think they will treat this like a playoff matchup and dig deep defensively.