Nelly's NBA Play-In Total Best Bet 6-1 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers
- Release Date
- 04/15/2026 10:45 AM
- Event Date
- 04/15/2026 10:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers Under 221.5 (-105)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Clippers and Warriors have battled through various editions of their rosters this season due to key injuries and find themselves in this elimination game for a chance to face the Suns in a second play-in test. These teams played in the regular season finale on Sunday with a 115-110 win for the Warriors in San Francisco and that was by far the highest scoring game between these teams in four meetings this season, with the prior three games totaling 215, 205, and 177, with the ‘under’ 4-0 in the season series, and 7-1 in the eight meetings the past two seasons. Tonight’s total is right near the mean total of those games, and both teams had decent defensive numbers down the stretch if you take away some of the meaningless final games in April. The Warriors conceded and accepted their position with a 1-7 run in the final eight games but tonight’s lineup will be more complete than the team had most of the season. The Clippers dropped four of the final seven once making the top six become unrealistic and this has been a streaky team that went through several major changes on the roster during the season. Since trading James Harden, the Clippers are 10-7 S/U at home with the ‘under’ going 9-2 in the team’s most recent 11 home games since mid-March. Golden State has allowed at least 110 points in 13 of the team’s past 14 road games but the Warriors were held to below 100 points in several of those games as the offense has been very inconsistent. Both teams finished in the NBA’s top 14 for defensive scoring on the season while both are in the NBA’s bottom 10 for offensive scoring average per game. The Warriors did not live up to its history of 3-point shooting success and Steph Curry has only played four games since February 1 as he can’t be expected to be in his prime. The Clippers are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the NBA while Los Angeles is also one of the slowest paced offensive teams in the NBA this season, with both teams outside the league’s fastest 18 tempos. These teams have veteran coaches that have both won championships and the ‘under’ is 8-4 in Tyronn Lue’s past 12 postseason home games as coach of the Clippers. The ‘under’ is also 8-4 in the past 12 Golden State road playoff games and under Steve Kerr in past play-in games the Warriors have scored 100, 112 (in OT), 94, and 121 for an average of just over 103 points per game in regulation.
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