Result

CBK Inner Circle Insider - Sunday

Handicapper

Jim Feist

League

NCAAB

Competition

Belmont vs Illinois State

Release Date

03/01/2026 10:15 AM

Event Date

03/01/2026 05:00 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Illinois State 0 (-113) (BetOnline)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

Illinois State has good value to win Sunday (March 1, 2026) against Belmont as the matchup profiles best for a close home victory in a game already implied to be close by the market. Illinois State is only a small favorite at CEFCU Arena (around -1.5), which signals this game is much more of a coin-flip than Belmont’s record would indicate and close games often come down to who has the home court advantage and/or can make plays late. Probably the biggest actionable item is Belmont could be missing guard Nic McClain, who has been spotted on multiple injury reports/news articles. Missing shot creators usually matter the most late (last 8 minutes) when teams are playing in the “trade possession mode” and every possession is magnified. There’s also some “eye-test” value in the fact that Belmont already defeated Illinois State 80–69 on January 24 as teams often come into a rematch wanting to prove something to their home crowd—this effect can be magnified in conference play when teams are familiar with their opponents’ plays and counters. Lastly, Belmont has bad “recent form”, per se, which we can use to identify an upset/near pick: Belmont is listed as 5–5 in its last 10 games in at least one game preview. This indicates they could be vulnerable coming into Normal as they likely are not playing their best basketball on a nightly basis. Combining all of the above together and you get a pretty predictable script for how Illinois State wins: They protect their home court by making Belmont work for every bucket (should be easier if McClain is out) and out-executing them on the margin plays (rebounds, turnovers, and free throws) to win by 3 or more points. Jim's Play: 852. Illinois State