Nelly’s Sunday Missouri Valley Knockout
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Murray State vs Bradley
- Release Date
- 03/01/2026 08:45 AM
- Event Date
- 03/01/2026 02:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Murray State +4.5 (-112)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Murray State is 12-7 in the MVC play but the Racers were once 8-0, going just 4-7 since late January and some of the losses have come by significant margins. The Racers won by 20 hosting Bradley early in the MVC season and these teams are in a three-way tie for second place in the MVC along with Illinois-Chicago, with Belmont already clinching the #1 spot. Murray State has the tiebreaker over Illinois-Chicago as a win today would get the Racers the #2 spot in Arch Madness, and in this year’s bracket only the top three teams are getting byes with only 11 teams in the conference after Missouri State left for Conference USA. In the statistical snapshot Murray State is the better offense, and Bradley is the better defense in comparing these teams and Murray State is a much more effective scoring team inside the arc, posting a field goal rate nearly eight percent stronger in 2-point range for a massive disparity. Murray State also gets to the free throw line more frequently and is a nearly 78 percent free throw shooting team. Murray State has struggled with 3-point defense in MVC play but that isn’t often a predictive measure, and the overall season rate is similar for both teams. In the first meeting Bradley shot a solid 39 percent beyond the arc and yet still lost by 20 and connecting at that above average rate in the rematch can’t be expected. Murray State is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings and the past two Bradley home wins in this series have all come by single-digit margins including a two-point overtime win last February. Bradley ended Murray State’s season last March in the MVC Tournament as this is a matchup that should have the attention of the Racers again and there is a significant incentive in the standings Sunday.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.