TOM'S 28-2 ATS NFL STRONG DATABASE BEST BET
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
- Release Date
- 09/18/2025 09:45 AM
- Event Date
- 09/18/2025 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Miami Dolphins +12.5 (-105)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #301 MIAMI (+) over Buffalo at 8:15 PM EST
Off back-to-back SU and ATS losses to the Colts and Patriots out of the gate, this division road game against the Bills is a critical one for the Dolphins. Miami is in danger of being out of the AFC East race before the month of September ends and head coach Mike McDaniel and his players will do whatever it takes to pull off the upset here.
The history in this division rivalry is certainly noted. The Fish own a rough 5-20 SU and 10-15 ATS record in the last 25 meetings. However, in their last 10 grabbing +4 or more against Buffalo, Miami owns a profitable 7-3 ATS mark. Equally impressive, since 1989, NFL game three road underdogs have been a solid investment notching a lucrative 74-44-2 ATS mark provided they slip in off back-to-back pointspread losses to open the year. If our “play on” side busts in off a straight up loss, this early season angle improves to a rewarding 65-36-2 ATS including an outstanding 21-8-1 ATS if they are competing with revenge. That bodes well for the ‘Fins.
Buffalo’s 23-6 SU and 18-11 ATS tally in its last 29 games is certainly noted and respected. But this isn’t the best wagering spot for the Bills. Technically speaking, AFC East home favorites in division play have struggled notching a surprising 54-83-5 ATS record provided they stroll in off a straight up road win. If our “play against” side arrives off a division game, this angle falls to a horrible 12-44-1 ATS including a woeful 7-37-1 ATS provided they hold a team won/loss percentage of .501 or higher. With those three parameters in play and our “play against” side not tackling an foe that enters off a blowout loss of seven points or more, this angle crumbles to a disturbing 2-28-1 ATS. The Bills apply to all four parts of that negative wagering situation.
The Dolphins have inked a 13-5 ATS tally in division play when coming off a straight up loss (8-2 ATS as an underdog) and Coach McDaniel and his players will lay it all on the line in this primetime showdown. Take Miami. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.