MLB 1st 5 Inning Total Annihilator - Thursday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers
- Release Date
- 09/18/2025 08:51 AM
- Event Date
- 09/18/2025 01:10 PM
- Bet Type
- 1st Half Over / Under
- Pick
-
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Under 4 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Tigers sit in first place in the AL Central at 85-67 with a chance to really pad their postseason resume with wins in this series while the Guardians have surged to 80-71 by winning 10 of their last 11. This makes for a compelling battle as Detroit has lots to play for and the Guardians are scrapping for relevance with these last few weeks a must for the team’s Wild Card and division hopes.
Detroit ace Tarik Skubal gets the ball and while he’s really missed time this year to injury, the Tigers have been hard pressed to find a more consistent starter in the American League when Skubal is on the hill. The southpaw is 13-5 this year with a 2.26 ERA and 224 strikeouts on the strength of his ability to work deep into games and keep baserunners off the board. Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee who, while he hasn’t come close to matching Skubal on the year, has a 10-11 record and a 4.44 ERA while also showing the ability to cut off scoring before it starts early in games when he gets on top of his command.
The first 5 innings are a likely point for low scoring. Skubal has been fantastic at not giving up crooked numbers in the first few innings on a near year-to-year basis and Cleveland has had little of that in their recent hot streak with their offense powered by late inning rallies. Bibee has also been solid the first time through an order in the majority of his starts this year and a Detroit offense that can create explosive offense is also one that can often be somewhat stagnant early on if an opposing starter has a good mix of breaking balls.
I think this one is close in the first five innings with Detroit’s pitchers simply being better. Skubal against the Guardians should be a recipe for zero or one run affairs and they just don’t have the same swing-for-the-fences kind of offense that can turn into a game on the back of a starting pitcher being neutralized early on.
Jim's Play: 961. Guardians/Tigers UNDER 4, 1st 5 Innings