MLB Early Inner Circle - Thursday (17-7 Run)
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs New York Mets
- Release Date
- 09/18/2025 08:49 AM
- Event Date
- 09/18/2025 01:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Diego Padres +115
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- San Diego is sitting at 83-69, firmly planted in second for the NL Wild Card while also still in the hunt for the NL West as they trail the Dodgers by 2-games with about 10 games left in the regular season. Every game is huge down the stretch, but the Padres in particular need to take care of business with the Mets (78-74) on their tail in the Wild Card race. The Mets are just a half game back of the Padres for that 2nd Wildcard spot. A win for San Diego keeps them on top and may lock in a tiebreaker since the Padres swept New York earlier this season. The Mets meanwhile have to be in “must win” mode as dropping too many more could see them fall completely.
Add it all up and the likely starters make this a San Diego game. The Padres will roll with Randy Vásquez, who has a 5-6 record with a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts over 123.1 innings pitched. He’s been solid, mostly keeping opponents in line, limiting the bleeding when he gets into jams, and generally showing good control. On the other side, New York turns to Jonah Tong, who is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 11.2 innings of work. Tong has shown some good potential at times, but he’s a free-swinging pitcher who walks too many and right now just has that ERA inflation written all over his stats that will make him susceptible on a high-leverage day like this.
Offensively, San Diego has the pieces to get the job done. Manny Machado has been a consistent force while Fernando Tatis Jr. is getting it together. Plus, the Padres’ lineup has shown in spurts the ability to do just enough, whether that means stringing together hits to manufacture runs or pounding opposing pitching for a heavy margin of victory. New York has been better recently at the plate, but Tong will either walk too many or get hit around with some regularity. Throw in the added intensity of this setting and that means a San Diego jump early could force the Mets to chase the game.
Add it up and the Padres have the upper hand thanks to their pitching depth and bullpen superiority too. If Vásquez can give San Diego a quality start, five or six innings with two or three runs or less, then they should be able to hold. nd and timely offense.
Jim's Play: 951. Padres