Result

Nelly’s TNF Total Opportunity 80% NFL Week 2

Handicapper

Nelly's Sports

League

NFL

Competition

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Release Date

09/18/2025 08:19 AM

Event Date

09/18/2025 08:15 PM

Bet Type

Over / Under

Pick

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Under 50 (-110) (BetOnline)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

The Bills have six consecutive wins vs. the Dolphins while going 13-1 S/U and 8-6 ATS in this series since 2017. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in five of the past six meetings between these teams including a 30-27 win in the last meeting last November in Buffalo. Miami did produce on offense last week but allowed a 94-yard kickoff return touchdown and then had a critical interception while driving for a potential tying or go-ahead score to lose a close game in the home opener, now sitting at 0-2 on the season. 2-0 double-digit favorites hosting 0-2 teams have gone just 6-10-1 ATS since 1988 and this is going to be a spread nearly as large as the playoff meeting in January 2023 started by Skylar Thompson as a 7th round draft pick rookie for Miami that had made only two previous starts. Heavy favorites on Thursday games have fared well however as since 1980 NFL favorites of 10 or more are 43-2 S/U and 32-13 ATS as the short turnaround may exaggerate the edge for the stronger team. While the home opener win over Baltimore was a miracle, the Bills won 30-10 last week at the Jets in the team’s first division game with the defense stepping up to allow only 154 yards and New York did not convert a single 3rd down. Injuries to Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are a concern but the ‘under’ has gone 21-11 since 2008 in games with a Thursday favorite of 10 or more points. Miami did reach 27 points last week with 6.9 yards per play after a miserable Week 1 showing but the true value of the Dolphins offense is likely somewhere in the middle of those two results. Miami had a punt return touchdown last week and two other scores on drives of fewer than 50 yards while Tua Tagovailoa has the third worst QBR in the NFL through two weeks. With a recent ‘over’ history in this series, this total is elevated as only two totals in 47 games in this series since 1980 has closed at 49.5 or higher. NFL games with a double-digit favorite spread and a total of 50 or higher have gone 22-9-1 to the ‘under’ since 2015. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.